Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.051483 0.058915 0.067107 0.076814 0.088020 0.100563 0.115694
2024-12-15 0.040266 0.050406 0.062681 0.078682 0.099067 0.124265 0.157929
2024-12-22 0.033173 0.044116 0.058231 0.077869 0.104646 0.140108 0.191011
2024-12-29 0.029522 0.041248 0.057179 0.080568 0.114308 0.161640 0.233814
2025-01-05 0.025133 0.036588 0.052839 0.077796 0.115552 0.171167 0.260459
2025-01-12 0.022078 0.033333 0.049929 0.076464 0.118360 0.182855 0.291370
2025-01-19 0.019176 0.029902 0.046268 0.073394 0.117894 0.189167 0.314274
2025-01-26 0.018074 0.029085 0.046456 0.076279 0.127083 0.211698 0.366604
2025-02-02 0.017097 0.028330 0.046614 0.079055 0.136309 0.235257 0.423769
2025-02-09 0.016225 0.027634 0.046757 0.081760 0.145643 0.259993 0.486304
2025-02-16 0.014913 0.026038 0.045185 0.081239 0.149081 0.274483 0.531498
2025-02-23 0.013915 0.024882 0.044246 0.081718 0.154344 0.292845 0.586559
2025-03-02 0.012869 0.023561 0.042923 0.081419 0.158265 0.309457 0.641249
2025-03-09 0.012254 0.022976 0.042897 0.083612 0.167366 0.337489 0.724181
2025-03-16 0.011322 0.021693 0.041413 0.082741 0.170122 0.352869 0.781893
2025-03-23 0.010915 0.021383 0.041771 0.085619 0.181000 0.386625 0.885905
2025-03-30 0.009919 0.019804 0.039454 0.082663 0.178976 0.392111 0.924923
2025-04-06 0.009181 0.018677 0.037940 0.081243 0.180137 0.404765 0.982930
2025-04-13 0.008340 0.017259 0.035690 0.077970 0.176710 0.406450 1.013952
2025-04-20 0.008141 0.017181 0.036259 0.081046 0.188356 0.445031 1.145209
2025-04-27 0.007940 0.017076 0.036756 0.084006 0.200078 0.485315 1.287524
2025-05-04 0.007740 0.016954 0.037201 0.086891 0.211969 0.527581 1.442255
2025-05-11 0.007296 0.016243 0.036256 0.086335 0.215167 0.548036 1.539044